BankNifty options

Read this before anything else. Every number on this site describes what already happened in 16 years of BankNifty options history. None of it is a forecast, a recommendation, or investment advice, and a percentage change in an option's price is not a return on the money it would have cost to hold it.

What this is

27 pattern ideas about BankNifty options, each written down with a predicted direction before it was tested. 16 of them were checked against years of data held back for exactly this purpose; the other 11 could not be honestly tested at all with the checks this project has, and are marked accordingly rather than counted among the tested ones (see below).

Confirmed
5
Candidate
1
Rejected
10
Not tested
11

5 held up both on the years used to find them and on later years they had never seen. 1 looked real once but did not repeat, and are not proven. 7 show no evidence at all, and 3 more show a real, statistically decisive effect but in the opposite direction from what was predicted — rejected for contradicting their own declared prediction, not for lacking evidence — every one is listed in full, not hidden, because knowing what does not work (or works backwards) is what makes the rest worth anything.

11 more could not be honestly tested with the checks this project has — not tested, not rejected on evidence, just not yet answerable. See Method for why.

What held up

decay final three days (straddle price)-41.4%weekly final two days (straddle price)-28.3%monthly final two days (straddle price)-27.1%decay mid cycle (straddle price)-10.5%vrp positive on average (implied volatility)+3.1%
Each bar is that one pattern's own measured change, labelled with what was measured — never a portfolio return — so only compare bars that share the same label; green rose, red fell.

Another, weekly_final_two_days, is regime-dead: almost all of its evidence comes from the years BankNifty had weekly expiries, and weekly expiries were abolished in late 2024. It passed every test and cannot be used today. Its own entry in the catalogue explains this in full.

How thin the data really is

A typical session traded only about 26.6% of its own listed option chain — and an at-the-money implied volatility, the single most-used number in this catalogue, exists on only 40.7% of the 28,343 (date, expiry) rows this project measured. Neither is a data fault: most listed strikes, most days, are too far from the money for anyone to trade. Both are disclosed, never hidden, wherever they affect a specific pattern — see Method for the full picture.

Start here

How to read this explains options, each pattern family, and what all four verdicts mean, in plain language. All patterns is the full catalogue — every idea, confirmed and rejected alike.